In a study published in Nature Cities, a research team led by Prof. SHI Long and Prof. ZHANG Heping from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences established the most comprehensive city-level fire incident database to date, covering 20.6% of the global population, and quantified the intrinsic link between climate change and urban fire risks.

It is estimated that fires cause 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries worldwide annually. To develop climate adaption strategies, there is an urgent need in understanding changes in fire incident frequency. Climate warming's impact on wildfires has been well understood, however, its influence on urban fire risks remains unclear.

Researchers collected fire incident data from 2,847 cities worldwide, and unveiled impact mechanisms of climate change on different types of urban fires. 

A parabolic relationship was revealed between building fire frequency and rising temperatures, with the lowest frequency occurring at the thermal comfort temperature of approximately 24.0°C. For every 1°C increase in temperature, vehicle and outdoor fire frequencies rose by 2.7% and 4.7%, respectively. 

Projections under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario suggested that by 2100, building fire frequency may decrease by 4.6%, while vehicle and outdoor fire incidents could increase by 11.6% and 22.2%, respectively. Between 2020 and 2100, global warming may directly result in 335,000 fire-related deaths and 1.153 million injuries. 

Although achieving the 1.5°C climate target could reduce fire-related casualties under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 50%, the numbers would still be high.

These findings make recommendations on the allocation and reallocation of national firefighting budgets, and guides climate adaptation strategies. Researchers highlighted the need for different mitigation strategies for various types of fire incidents under global warming. By implementing regional, timely, and precise firefighting resource planning, potential strategies could be directly applied to reduce fire-related casualties and property losses.

Given the current lack of urban-specific fire risk indices, this study could also help develop tailored fire risk indices for different cities and countries, laying a theoretical foundation for the planning, precise allocation and response strategies of firefighting resources.