Climate change has a profound impact on historical societal transformations. A recent study by Chinese researchers have found that the collapse of the Ming Dynasty, one of the most important dynasties in Chinese history, may have been triggered by the Wanli megadrought, decades earlier than previous thought.

Most previous studies on the collapse of the Ming Dynasty have focused on the famous "Chongzhen Drought" of the late Ming Dynasty, considering it an important factor in the decline of the Ming Dynasty.

Insufficiency of data resolution and dating precision has limited our comprehensive understanding of the intrinsic relationship between the decline of the Ming Dynasty and climate change.

Now, a research team led by the Institute of Earth Environment (IEE) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences reconstructed the historical variations of Palmer Drought Severity Index for July–September based on tree-ring stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from 1556 CE to 2015 CE in southwest Chinese Loess Plateau.

Enhancing the comprehension of the interaction mechanism between climate change and civilization development can offer valuable historical insights for humanity to address the challenges posed by global change.

“Hydroclimatic fluctuations are of paramount importance in the historical changes of China,” said Associate Professor REN Meng from IEE, first author of the study.

The researchers revealed a significant weakening of the Asian summer monsoon between 1561 CE and 1661 CE, consistent with the Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period (1580–1660 CE), and analyze the specific characteristics of this climatic anomaly in details.

The reconstruction also captured a distinct humidification trend over northwest China since the 2000s, which coincides with the general trend of warm-humid climate in northwest China.

In addition to the well-known Chongzhen megadrought, this study recorded the severe Wanli megdrought (1585–1590 CE) during the late Ming Dynasty, an event that rarely featured in earlier studies, exhibiting comparable duration and severity to the Chongzhen megadrought.

Further analysis indicated that Wanli megadrought may have served as an early trigger for the collapse of the Ming Dynasty.

“Our analysis implicates the ENSO as a contributing factor in both the Wanli and Chongzhen megadroughts, and thus to the ultimate collapse of the Ming Dynasty by affecting the Asian summer monsoon intensity,” said REN.

This work, published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, was funded by the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the 2nd Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.