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Unveiling Causes of the 1931 Yangtze River Flood

Sep 08, 2023

The 1931 Yangtze River flood in eastern China is regarded as one of the world’s deadliest natural disasters on record. the origins of this monumental flood have remained largely unexplored due to the scarcity of historical records and pre-1950s meteorological data in China.

Based on multiple lines of evidence including instrumental observations, reanalysis datasets, and simulations conducted with atmospheric general circulation models driven by historical sea surface temperatures, researchers led by Prof. ZHOU Tianjun from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have investigated the underlying mechanisms of the 1931 Yangtze River flood.

They found that the flood resulted from the combined effects of tropical El Niño–related sea surface temperature forcing and extratropical wave activities over the Eurasian continent. They also suggested that the flood was a preconditioned compound event, potentially aggravated by preceding springtime heavy precipitation.

The study was published in Journal of Climate on Aug. 28.
"We found that the flooding in 1931 along the Yangtze River valley was driven by July rainfall. While the July rainfall in 1931 totals ranked second over the past century, they surpassed those of many other pluvial years between 1951 and 2010 in terms of persistence," said ZHOU Yueqi, first author of the study, a Ph.D. student from the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences studying at IAP.
According to the study, the persistent rainfall in July 1931 was associated with a steady western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). Warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean, following an El Niño event, caused the WPSH to extend southwestward. Concurrently, the southward shift of the westerly jet, driven by extratropical wave activities, impeded the typical northward progression of the WPSH for July. This consistent westward expansion of the WPSH anchored the rainband along the Yangtze River, precipitating the disaster.
Contact

LIN Zheng

Institute of Atmospheric Physics

E-mail:

Understanding the Forcing Mechanisms of the 1931 Summer Flood along the Yangtze River, the World's Deadliest Flood on Record

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