A new study found that agricultural advances could help maintain food production on the Tibetan Plateau under scenarios with steep-sloping cropland retirement, livestock reduction, and warmer and wetter climate trends. However, extreme weather events could threaten this progress.

Led by researchers from the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in collaboration with researchers from the University of Minnesota, United States, the study was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on July 8.

Food production and conservation often involve difficult trade-offs, presenting a major challenge to the simultaneous achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals on Zero Hunger (SDG 2) and Life on Land (SDG 15).

This conflict is especially evident on the Tibetan Plateau, a global biodiversity hotspot and the "Asian Water Tower", where harsh climatic conditions constrain food production while fragile ecosystems provide vital ecosystem services at both regional and global scales.

To better understand this challenge, the international research team assessed food production on the Tibetan Plateau from 1990 to 2020 and simulated the impacts of climate change, agricultural advances, steep-slope cropland retirement, and livestock reduction on food production and ecosystem services.

They found that food production on the Tibetan Plateau increased by 32.33% between 1990 and 2020. By 2020, per capita dietary energy supply had reached 2,892.98 kcal per day, exceeding the level recommended by the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents.

Furthermore, the research team found that, under climate change, the Tibetan Plateau is projected to become warmer and wetter. Combined with agricultural advances, these changes are expected to further increase yields even with all cropland on slopes steeper than 21° retired, creating favorable conditions for natural ecosystem restoration.

Moreover, while maintaining sufficient food production, livestock numbers could be reduced by approximately 20%, thereby alleviating severe overgrazing on the Tibetan Plateau. The combined implementation of steep-slope cropland retirement and livestock reduction would further enhance ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, water retention, and habitat quality.

Nevertheless, the researchers noted that extreme weather events may undermine future food production. Per capita food supply could even fall below the minimum dietary energy requirement under severe disaster scenarios.

According to the research team, climate change and agricultural advances provide important opportunities to reconcile food production with conservation on the Tibetan Plateau. At the same time, strengthening adaptation to extreme climate events and improving the resilience of regional food production and supply will be essential.

The findings provide a scientific basis for promoting the coordinated development of food production and conservation on the Tibetan Plateau, the researchers said.