In a study published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, a team led by Prof. WANG Yufei from the Institute of Botany of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, along with the collaborator from Austria, revealed that the global grassland coverage will likely increase at the end of this century.

Researchers created a data set containing 16,372 records with both characteristic variables, including vascular plant richness, bioclimatic, soil and elevation variables, and Poaceae pollen abundance (PA). They used a random forest model to simulate the spatial distribution of Poaceae PA.

The results showed a significant difference in the distribution of Poaceae PA across continents. The regions of higher abundance (e.g., ∼10% in temperate regions and ∼40% in tropical regions) are closely aligned with the distribution of grasslands.

Researchers projected the distribution of grass PA under four future climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 126, 245, 370, 585) and the changes of grasslands. The temperate grasslands in the Northern Hemisphere are expected to expand northwards based on all scenarios, and the Amazon savannas will also expand, encroaching on rainforests.

This work offers new insights into the development of grasslands in the future for both the scientific community and the policy-makers.